This site has been arguing that the opening of the Third Seal (Revelation 6:5-6) is more than just about soaring cost of food — it can be interpreted more broadly as the soaring cost of living.

The central bankers and Wall Street gurus were wrong that inflation was a “supply bottleneck issue”, just as they were wrong that inflation was “transitory”.  Especially given our interpretation of the opening of the Third Seal, I would expect that they are wrong again, as they are now saying “inflation is peaking”.

We previously highlighted that real interest rates were negative — that nominal interest rates were lower than inflation (historically speaking, nominal interest rates were usually higher than the inflation rate).  Despite the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank finally starting to raise short term nominal rates, real interest rates remain negative.  For the European Union, with inflation around 10%, real interest rates have only become more negative — with short term rates around 2%, real interest rates are negative 8%!  That remains extremely expansionary despite the fact that inflation has skyrocketed.  Whereas the Japanese central bank has kept a zero-interest rate policy, the CPI for Tokyo is up 4%, so its negative real interest rates are still below those of Europe.  With the official US CPI (consumer price index) around 6%, US real interest rates, while still negative, are only about negative 2% — though that is still expansionary!  For longer term interest rates, the US 10-year government bond is trading with a 3% handle, so even market interest rates are about negative 3%!

With real interest rates still highly negative, it would seem that nominal interest rates are not restrictive by any stretch of the imagination.  Central bank monetary policy is not the only factor that drives inflation.  For example, the US federal government continues to expand its deficit spending — perhaps the unprecedented monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve has ended, but the unprecedented deficit spending of the US federal government continues apace.  This will continue to drive high inflation.

While higher interest rates may damper excessive leverage in the financial markets, and also affect overall discretionary consumer spending, the open southern border of the US (and to a lesser degree, Europe) means that literally millions of new consumers are flooding into America.  This will continue to drive price rises in inelastic goods (goods where an increase in price will have little effect on demand), like food and energy and housing — everyone needs to eat, needs electricity and gasoline, and needs a place to live.  The experienced inflation of over half the population will continue to be much higher than the official government statistics.

This is a long-winded way of saying that inflation is not peaking — though I could be wrong.

The conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate.  NATO states continue to upgrade the weapons they are sending to Ukraine.  Russia understands that to lose in Ukraine would have dire longer-term implications.  I am sure Russia understands that the Whore will not be satisfied with a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine — the Whore would use the momentum to push Russia out of Syria and then seek to destabilize Russian allies like Belarus and Kazakstan.   This site has long argued that the Whore is looking to eventually escalate the conflict into a NATO-Russian war, as this would further harm not only the economy of the European Union, but it would also bring death and chaos to society in Europe.  The Whore is seeking to totally dominate the Beast (aka the EU), as it works towards its vision of a world government.  By destroying European society, the Whore will assure its own control of its hoped-for world government.

Events in Europe continue to support our view that a NATO-Russia conflict could serve as the catalyst for the 10 horns of the Beast to turn on the Whore and bring about the Whore’s destruction (please read previous posts if that went right over your head).

The Chinese balloon floating over the US brings up a scenario that I had previously dismissed.  For the destruction of Babylon and the opening of the Sixth Seal, this site has argued for a natural disaster to bring about the manifestation of prophecy.  Though the odds of catastrophic eruption of a super-volcano are astronomically low, it would serve to fulfill the prophecy as described in Revelation.  However, the other alternative scenario is exactly what is implied by the Chinese balloon.  An emp strike (which the Chinese balloon could deliver) would serve to cripple the America nuclear ICBM missiles, allowing for Russia (and perhaps China) to then launch a first strike to destroy US land-based nuclear capability.  Should Russia/China only strike the missile sites, then America might very well accept that it is screwed and not retaliate — any nuclear retaliation would mean nuclear strikes on US major cities.   Of course, this is another outlandish scenario — though probably one that has a higher probability of actually occurring than a super volcano eruption.  Anyway, as we have often said, the means by which the Whore and Babylon are destroyed is unclear.  We first will need to see how things in Ukraine actually play out.

The signs of Revelation fill the world.




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